The Abraham Accord and the Regional Strategic Culture of Iran

• Arash M. Akbari is a research associate at the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA). Holding a background of International Law and curreent MA Candidate in International Affairs MAIA Programme @JohnsHopkinsSAIS. He writes mostly about Iran, Middle Eastern security affairs, and diplomatic relations.

The volatile geopolitics of the Middle East and North Africa and its unstable balance of power in the aftermath of the 2011 uprisings in the Arab world and the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal has correspondingly developed the political relations between Israel and the Arab states around the Persian Gulf strategically stronger and diplomatically denser. Serving a political agenda, the Abraham Accords were signed to contain Iran’s influence in the region by introducing Israeli counter influences.

Subsequently, as Trump’s era ended and Saudi-Israeli relations with the US got less bonded, the Abraham Accords sees itself in danger by the revitalization of the JCPOA in Vienna. However, the renegotiations of the JCPOA is also endangered by the initiation of Ebrahim Raeisi’s presidency in Iran. A deal in which can once again strengthen Islamic Republic of Iran’s legitimacy and influence in the region.

The Abraham Accords , signed in August 2020, initiated a phase of normalization between Israel and two Persian Gulf monarchies, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Followed by peace treaties with Morocco and Sudan in October and December 2020, all mediated by the United States. Since the Israeli-Egyptian and the Israeli-Jordanian comprehensive peace treaties in 1979 and 1994, this is the first occasion that Arab states officially intend to engage in political and trade relations with Israel. However, unlike the previous peace agreements, the Abraham Accords were influenced by political agendas rather than disputes over territorial integrity. Given that the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan did not have any territorial conflicts with Israel, the political and strategic dimensions of these peace agreements were far more prominent. To what extent can these peace treaties pose a threat towards the stability of the MENA?

The balance of power in the Middle East and North Africa has played a vital role in the construction of these political agreements. Nowadays, classic military powers such as the United States, China and Russia are not the only dominant military forces in the region. Hence, in addition to arms being purchased from these global powers, some Arab states seem to be seeking for a regional alliance to deter potential threats. The security and ideological threats from regional revisionist emerging powers such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, influenced the signing of such agreements.

Furthermore, in the new security arena, Israeli influence (and presence) is now closer to the borders of Iran, further increasing the possibility of a major conflict. The Abraham Accords in which were meant to introduce stability to the region are conversely introducing new tensions. Correspondingly, Iran will increase its skepticism in its interstate relations with its Persian Gulf counterparts. Seeing both Iranian and Israeli power dynamics moving strategically closer and closer, the probability of a rise of direct conflict consolidates. Thus, the deals that were meant to empower regional peace and stability might just ignite a major flame.

In the last days of 2020, following the rising tensions between Iran, the US and Israel, an Israeli navy submarinehas entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in history. Such provoking and offensive military actions are the result of Israel’s overwhelmed confidence in which were shaped through the Abraham Accords agreements. More recently, the tension between Iranian and Israeli vessels in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Yemen and the Suez Canal can portray a wider image of how unnecessary rise of Israeli confident influence can confront Iranian power dynamics and ignite new tensions. Also, how political derivatives can escalate skirmishes between Iran and Israel. The attacks in Natanz Nuclear Facility can proportionately introduce another dimension to this political and military confrontation of Iran and Israel.

Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing influence, nuclear developments to up to 60% enrichment, and its ballistic missile capabilities has become Israel’s and GCC states’ most pressing threat. Be that as it may, United States political intentions in the Middle East varies in different administration; Turkey is collaborating in a strategic alliance with Qatar, and Iran is developing its military capabilities; UAE and Bahrain had no choice but to normalize their relations with Israel to preserve their own national interest and strengthen their security.

The revitalization of the JCPOA and the newly elected President of Iran Ebrahim Raeisi on the other hand facilitates Iran to regain its conservative political charisma while keeping its liberal negotiations open; and engage directly with the international community. Although, it may take Iran a step back in its nuclear program, but it will legitimize its regional presence as a rising power and subsequently rolls back the Israeli newly emerged influence. Thus, the Abraham Accords and its participants see themselves threatened by the reestablishment of the JCPOA.

Israeli’s active presence in this region and its clashes with Iranian national security can subsequently trigger inevitable conflicts and destabilise the region. Such deals mediated by the United States can retrieve the obsolete ideological differences between regional states on the matter of Israeli-Palestinian conflict and proportionately re-escalate regional tension. Although in short term the Abraham Accords portrays stability, normalisation and prosperity, but considering the above-mentioned potential consequences, and its interest clashes with the JCPOA, its long term regional damages in the region are inevitable.

Nowadays, such normalization deals can pose a greater threat to the already disrupted region of the Middle East and North Africa. Given the strategic culture of regional hegemons such as the Islamic Republic, the presence of Israel could potentially threaten regional security. The security dilemma of Israel’s presence in the Persian Gulf will correspondingly provoke Iranians to take defensive actions accordingly, or offensive actions for deterrence. A defensive position in which can be empowered by revitalization of the JCPOA. In a near future, we will be able to see which player takes a dominant role in controlling the region, Iranian rising power dynamics, or Israeli disruptive expansion of influence.